Health Spending Projections Through 2013

Abstract

The rate of growth in national health expenditures is projected to fall to 7.8 percent in 2003 because of slower private and public spending growth. However, during the next ten years health spending growth is expected to outpace economic growth. As a result, the health share of gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to increase from 14.9 percent in 2002 to 18.4 percent in 2013. The recently passed Medicare drug benefit legislation (not included in these projections) is not anticipated to have a large impact on overall national health spending, but it can be expected to cause sizable shifts in payment sources.