Stochastic Programming for Improved Multiuse Reservoir Operation in Burkina Faso, West Africa

Abstract

A network of reservoirs and diversion structures in the Comoé River Basin in southwestern Burkina Faso, West Africa, provides municipal water supply and irrigation for sugarcane agribusiness and downstream farmers. The region is characterized by severe intraseasonal and inter-annual variability of precipitation and reservoir inflows. Reservoir operations are generally conservative, even during relatively wet years. A stochastic decision support tool (DST) is described which translates a scenario-tree of streamflow and precipitation forecasts, conditionally weighted by a tercile seasonal precipitation forecast, into optimal release schedules for the upcoming year. It is shown that the DST coupled with the seasonal precipitation forecasts may provide more efficient and equitable release decisions that benefit the variety of stakeholders in the basin.