Potential benefits of a dedicated probabilistic rapid ramp event forecast tool

Abstract

Wind power continues its rapid worldwide growth. In some places wind energy penetration is so high that the variation in wind energy production is the dominant driving force behind variation in the generation-load balance. To ensure a reliable supply of power, system operators must be able to schedule sufficient operating reserves. However, it is impractical to always supply 100% back-up for all generation units. Typically the N-1 criterion is applied, establishing the effect of the loss of the single largest generation unit. Wind energy compels different operating requirements, because failure of an entire wind energy project is improbable, but rapid variation in energy output is common. In such an environment, wind energy forecasting has significant value, especially during times of rapid change, and the use of a probabilistic forecast tool can minimize reserve requirements.