Simulation study of algorithms for aircraft trajectory prediction based on ADS-B technology

Abstract

Conflict detection and resolution (CDR) is one of the key points for the civil aviation safety. State estimation and trajectory prediction are important components of a CDR system. This paper proposes a new algorithm to accomplish these tasks. For state estimation, the Kalman filter is used to provide accurate continuous state estimates and an adaptive model-transition protocol is introduced to track the discrete flight models. Incorporating these information, the intent model is determined by a pretreatment and probability method. Finally, the future trajectory can be predicted. Simulation results based on an up-to-date surveillance technology-Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) show that our algorithm performs significantly better in providing accurate trajectory prediction and increasing the computation efficiency than existing algorithms.