Search strategies in decision making: the success of “success”

TLDR

Search strategies research has focused on decision makers' personal preferences among cues, neglecting learning of cue‑criterion relationships. The study empirically and rationally analyzes cue search in environments with objective criteria. Cues are evaluated by validity, discrimination rate, and success, the expected proportion of correct choices when only that cue is used. Experiments show that success strongly determines search, and a rational analysis explains why success‑directed search is the most adaptive strategy in many circumstances. © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Abstract

Abstract Examination of search strategies has tended to focus on choices determined by decision makers' personal preferences among relevant cues, and not on learning cue‐criterion relationships. We present an empirical and rational analysis of cue search for environments with objective criteria. In such environments, cues can be evaluated on the basis of three properties: validity (the probability that a cue identifies the correct choice if cue values differ between alternatives); discrimination rate (the proportion of occasions on which a cue has differing values); and success (the expected proportion of correct choices when only that cue can be used). Our experiments show that though there is a high degree of individual variability, success is a key determinant of search. Furthermore, a rational analysis demonstrates why success‐directed search is the most adaptive strategy in many circumstances. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.