Modeling language change: An evaluation of Trudgill's theory of the emergence of New Zealand English

TLDR

Trudgill (2004) proposed that new dialects such as New Zealand English emerge deterministically, a view linked to usage‑based models where frequency drives linguistic change and to neutral evolution frameworks. The study tests whether Trudgill’s deterministic theory can plausibly explain new dialect emergence by applying a mathematical model grounded in Croft’s usage‑based evolutionary framework. The authors employ a Croft‑based usage‑based evolutionary model that attributes dialect emergence to variant frequency and speaker interaction rates. Modeling shows that determinism alone is insufficient for new dialect emergence, demonstrating the value of mathematical modeling for testing language‑change theories.

Abstract

Abstract Trudgill (2004) proposed that the emergence of New Zealand English, and of isolated new dialects generally, is purely deterministic. It can be explained solely in terms of the frequency of occurrence of particular variants and the frequency of interactions between different speakers in the society. Trudgill's theory is closely related to usage-based models of language, in which frequency plays a role in the representation of linguistic knowledge and in language change. Trudgill's theory also corresponds to a neutral evolution model of language change. We use a mathematical model based on Croft's usage-based evolutionary framework for language change (Baxter, Blythe, Croft, & McKane, 2006), and investigate whether Trudgill's theory is a plausible model of the emergence of new dialects. The results of our modeling indicate that determinism cannot be a sufficient mechanism for the emergence of a new dialect. Our approach illustrates the utility of mathematical modeling of theories and of empirical data for the study of language change.