A Conjunctural Model of Political Conflict

Abstract

Violent political conflict has typically been studied either from an economic discontent or a political opportunity framework. This study proposes a conjunctural model, which hypothesizes that the production of grievances due to economic inequality varies systematically and interacts with political opportunities to generate violent political conflict. Using multiple regression analysis, this cross-national research examines the interaction between economic inequality and political opportunities, and their direct effects on political violence. Findings provide support for the conjunctural model propositions that political opportunity structures moderate the relationship between economic inequality and violent political conflict. Specifically, the positive effects of income inequality and separatist potential on political violence are enhanced in weak states. The impact of class exploitation on violent political conflict is moderated by regime structure and political institutionalization. Findings suggest that political opportunity structures may operate in different ways for challenges rooted in class as opposed to ethnic inequalities.