The influence of match location, quality of opposition, and match status on possession strategies in professional association football

TLDR

The study investigates how match location, opposition quality, and match status influence possession strategies in a professional Spanish football team and aims to model future possession. Twenty‑seven 2005‑2006 league matches were analyzed with a computerized system, dividing play into episodes based on evolving match status. Results show teams hold the ball longer when losing, reduce possession against stronger opponents, and shift time spent in pitch zones according to match status and location, underscoring the need for analysts to account for these variables.

Abstract

The aim of this study was to examine the effects of match location, quality of opposition, and match status on possession strategies in a professional Spanish football team. Twenty-seven matches from the 2005-2006 domestic league season were notated post-event using a computerized match analysis system. Matches were divided into episodes according to evolving match status. Linear regression analysis showed that possession of the ball was greater when losing than when winning (P < 0.01) or drawing (P < 0.05), and playing against strong opposition was associated with a decrease in time spent in possession (P < 0.01). In addition, weighted mean percentage time spent in different zones of the pitch (defensive third, middle third, attacking third) was influenced by match status (P < 0.01) and match location (P < 0.05). A combination of these variables and their interactions can be used to develop a model to predict future possession in football. The findings emphasize the need for match analysts and coaches to consider independent and interactive potential effects of match location, quality of opposition, and match status during assessments of technical and tactical components of football performance. In particular, the findings indicate that strategies in soccer are influenced by match variables and teams alter their playing style during the game accordingly.