Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s

TLDR

Global demand for agricultural products drives cropland and pasture expansion in the developing world, and whether new lands replace forests, degraded forests, or grasslands determines the environmental impact, yet definitive quantification of these land‑cover changes remains lacking. The study aims to analyze a pan‑tropical Landsat database to examine pathways of agricultural expansion across major tropical forest regions in the 1980s and 1990s and to highlight future land conversions needed to meet mounting demand. The authors use the FAO‑created classified Landsat scenes database to trace agricultural expansion pathways across tropical forests during the 1980s and 1990s. Between 1980 and 2000, more than 55% of new agricultural land in the tropics came at the expense of intact forests, with another 28% derived from disturbed forests, underscoring the potential consequences of unabated expansion for forest conservation and carbon emissions.

Abstract

Global demand for agricultural products such as food, feed, and fuel is now a major driver of cropland and pasture expansion across much of the developing world. Whether these new agricultural lands replace forests, degraded forests, or grasslands greatly influences the environmental consequences of expansion. Although the general pattern is known, there still is no definitive quantification of these land-cover changes. Here we analyze the rich, pan-tropical database of classified Landsat scenes created by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations to examine pathways of agricultural expansion across the major tropical forest regions in the 1980s and 1990s and use this information to highlight the future land conversions that probably will be needed to meet mounting demand for agricultural products. Across the tropics, we find that between 1980 and 2000 more than 55% of new agricultural land came at the expense of intact forests, and another 28% came from disturbed forests. This study underscores the potential consequences of unabated agricultural expansion for forest conservation and carbon emissions.