The Delphi Forecasting Method

Abstract

ognized in the short run. Furthermore, during the time interval between poli cy decision and observable impact, social conditions influencing schools will change. Here-and-now educa tional choices have both long-term consequences and immediate impacts. Yet short-term rather than long-term policy matters dominate educational thinking. Two conclusions follow. First, edu cational thinking must take into ac count more of the future than is typical now. Alternative plans, poli cies, and research programs must be assessed in relation to the most sys tematic conjectures that can be devel oped about the future environment in which schools can be expected to exist. Secondly, factors that are viewed as decisive in the current state of affairs may well not be the most significant factors to consider for the long-term commitment of educational resources, or in shaping educational plans and policies. The present erup tion and impact of widespread student dissent was not generally anticipated in policy planning a decade ago. It follows that educational planning and policy decisions must incorporate the