Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board · 2002 · 428 citations · 13 references
Empirical Bayes MethodEngineeringSafety ScienceInjury PreventionRisk AnalysisTraffic InjurySafety ManagementAccident InvestigationRisk ManagementProbabilistic Safety AssessmentTransport AccidentBayesian MethodsSafety EstimationStatisticsRoad SafetyReliabilityTraffic SafetyRoad Traffic SafetyBayesian StatisticsEmpirical BayesSafety AnalysisMedicineEb MethodEmergency Medicine
The empirical Bayes method improves safety estimation by increasing precision beyond short accident histories and correcting regression‑to‑mean bias, and is now incorporated in highway safety models, signaling its readiness as a standard practice. This study aims to promote the practical adoption of the empirical Bayes method.
The empirical Bayes (EB) method addresses two problems of safety estimation: it increases the precision of estimates beyond what is possible when one is limited to the use of a 2- to 3-year accident history, and it corrects for the regression-to-mean bias. The increase in precision is important when the usual estimate is too imprecise to be useful. The elimination of the regression-to-mean bias is important whenever the accident history of the entity is in some way connected with the reason why its safety is estimated. The theory of the EB method is well developed. It is now used in the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model and will be used in the Comprehensive Highway Safety Improvement Model. The time has come for the EB method to be the standard and staple of professional practice. The study’s goal is to facilitate the transition from theory into practice.
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Transportation Research Record
Anne Vingaard Olesen, Erik Kjems, Kristian Hegner Reinau et al. · 2016 · 11.4K citations
PREDICTION OF THE EXPECTED SAFETY PERFORMANCE OF RURAL TWO-LANE HIGHWAYS
D W Harwood, Ezra Hauer, W E Hughes et al. · 2000 · 319 citations