Early health effects of the emerging tobacco epidemic in China. A 16-year prospective study

Abstract

Cigarette smoking is already a major cause of death in China, and among middle-aged Shanghai men, about 20% of all deaths during the 1980s were due to smoking. The excess was greatest among men who began smoking before the age of 25 years, about 47% of whom would, at 1987 mortality rates, die between the ages of 35 and 69 years (compared with only 29% of nonsmokers). These estimates reflect the consequences of past smoking patterns. The future health effects of current smoking patterns are likely to be greater because of the recent large increase in cigarette consumption, particularly at younger ages, in China.