Modeling International Migration: Determinants of Emigration from Greece to the United States, 1820–1980

Abstract

Abstract This study formulates a model for the investigation of international migration and tests the model with data on emigration from Greece to the United States. The model uses a Bernoulli-type differential equation and is based upon the existence of a pool of potential emigrants at the sending country created by the push-pull forces operating between a country of origin and a country of destination. Information flows from the receiving to the sending country also influence the migratory current. Applying the model to emigration from Greece to the U.S. from 1820 to 1980 reveals several interesting findings. The intensity of migration was greatly affected by events in Greece and was conditioned by the constraints introduced by changes in American immigration law. Economic reasons, for the most part, forced Greeks to emigrate, but political upheavals also played an important role. At the destination, the U.S. immigration quota system of 1924 (restrictive) and the immigration act of 1965 (facilitative) were particularly critical factors affecting emigration from Greece.