Intuitive Theories of Mind: A Rational Approach to False Belief

Abstract

We propose a causal Bayesian model of false belief reasoning in children. This model realizes theory of mind as the rational use of intuitive theories and supports causal prediction, explanation, and theory revision. The model undergoes an experience-driven false belief transition. We investigate the relationship between prediction, explanation, and surprise; this is used to interpret an empirical study of children’s explanations in an extension of the false belief task. Our study includes the standard outcome, surprising to younger children, and a novel “Psychic Sally ” condition that challenges older children with an unexpected outcome. In everyday life, humans constantly attribute unobservable mental states to one another, and use them to