SSRN Electronic Journal · 2006 · 33 citations · 23 references
Social SciencesBusiness EconomicsEconomicsEconometricsFamily BusinessLabor EconomicsLongitudinal ResearchMicroeconometricsBusiness Start-up CounselingProbit RegressionRare Events Logistic RegressionStart-upStartup Selection ProcessesStartup Survival
Identifying start‑up characteristics that predict success can improve start‑up outcomes and counseling. The study quantifies individual determinants of freelance start‑up success. Using a revised German Socio‑Economic Panel (1992‑2002), the authors applied rare‑events logit, logit, and probit models to estimate three‑year survival while incorporating institutional, personal, and household socio‑economic variables. Three‑year survival probability is highest for founders with recent active labour participation and skills, then for those with non‑university degrees, older age indicating broader experience, and a liberal professional background in medicine or technical/scientific fields.
If certain start-up characteristics will indicate a business success, knowing such characteristics could generate more successful start-ups and more efficient start-up counseling. Our study will contribut e to this by quantifying individual success determinants of freelance start-ups. The data base for the microeconometric analyses of the survival of the first three years is a revised German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for 1992 until 2002, which allows to incorporate institutional, personal and family/household socio-economic variables. We describe and discuss the datawork to achieve compatible information over time within a revised GSOEP and present microeconometric rare events logit, logit and probit results. The start-up success measured as the probability to survive the first three years is first of all influenced by an active labour force participation with its acquired skills and working experiences just before the start-up period (rank 1), followed by a non-university degree as the highest general human capital indicator (rank 2), a general (non-linear) experience indicated by age (rank 3) and the business related background (rank 4) as the type of liberal profession in the group of the liberal medical professions and the liberal technical and scientific professions.
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