TROPHIC LEVELS ARE DIFFERENTIALLY SENSITIVE TO CLIMATE

Abstract

Predicting the response of communities to climate change is a major challenge for ecology. Communities may well not respond as entities but be disrupted, particularly if trophic levels respond differently, but as yet there is no evidence for differential responses from natural systems. We therefore analyzed unusually detailed plant and animal data collected over 20 years from two grassland communities to determine whether functional group climate sensitivity differed between trophic levels. We found that sensitivity increases significantly with increasing trophic level. This differential sensitivity would lead to community destabilization under climate change, not simple geographical shifts, and consequently must be incorporated in predictive ecological climate models.