National health projections through 2008.

Abstract

Health spending is expected to resume its rise as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) in the projection period, following 6 years of near stability, increasing from 13.5 percent in 1997 to an estimated 16.2 percent by 2008. This implies an approximate doubling of health spending, from $1.1 trillion in 1997 to $2.2 trillion by 2008. We anticipate a reversal in recent patterns of growth in public and private health spending, with private spending expected to accelerate while Medicare spending slows in response to the implementation of the Balanced Budget Act (BBA) of 1997.