Vote Choice in Suburban Elections

TLDR

Local elections are crucial yet understudied, particularly in suburban municipalities where most Americans live. The study aims to develop and test models of local voting behavior. It uses unique survey data from over 1,400 voters across 30 suburban communities. The study finds that suburban elections are dominated by a highly informed, nonrepresentative stakeholder group, leading vote choice to resemble larger contests in terms of issue salience, partisanship, and candidate likability, with effects varying by community size and diversity, and underscores the need for new theories of micro‑electoral voting behavior.

Abstract

Despite the importance of local elections in the United States, political scientists have little knowledge of what shapes vote choice in most municipalities and special districts, particularly in the suburbs where a majority of Americans live. This article develops and tests models of local voting behavior using unique survey data of over 1,400 voters in 30 different suburban communities. Suburban electoral politics are dominated by a nonrepresentative group of “stakeholders,” who are highly informed and interested in local affairs. Because of this, vote choice in suburban elections ends up sharing many characteristics with larger contests (i.e., issue salience, partisanship, and candidate likeability), although their impact varies with the size and diversity of the particular community (e.g., in smaller suburbs, voters are more engaged in local politics, more likely to know candidates personally, and more likely to vote against incumbents). These findings suggest the importance of developing new theories about voting behavior in micro-electoral contexts.