Simulating the effect of forest fire on long-term annual timber supply

Abstract

A model is described that incorporates the effects of forest fire on long-term equilibrium timber supply. Its form is a computer simulation that burns and harvests specified proportions of a hypothetical forest with a given yield curve of volume over age. The primary result is the extent to which the equilibrium maximum sustainable annual harvest is depresssed by fire. This depression is always greater than the volume killed on the burned area. On the other hand, when the annual area cut is somewhat below the optimum level, the volume of harvest is relatively insensitive to the amount of fire. The results imply that the real impact of fire in managed forests is properly judged by the effect of the harvest, not from data on area burned and volume killed.