An evaluation of some linear decision rules in chance‐Constrained models for reservoir planning and operation

Abstract

Several linear decision rules used in chance‐constrained models for estimating efficient reservoir capacities and operating policies are compared and evaluated. A chance‐constrained model that includes known or unknown reservoir release targets, or storage volume targets, permits this comparison, since regardless of the linear decision rule chosen, release or storage volume commitments can be made, and their maximum probabilities of failure estimated, well in advance of any period in which they apply. Optimization and simulation techniques are used to evaluate the performance of each decision rule.