The Effect of Political Trust on the Presidential Vote, 1968–96

TLDR

Scholars have found no link between declining political trust and turnout, yet the impact of trust on vote choice has been understudied, especially during recent elections marked by falling trust, incumbent losses, and strong third‑party challenges. This study investigates how declining political trust influences presidential vote choice, showing that the electoral beneficiary varies with the electoral context. In two‑candidate contests, distrustful voters favor the nonincumbent major party, whereas in three‑candidate races, declining trust boosts third‑party candidates at the expense of both major parties.

Abstract

Scholars have consistently demonstrated that no link exists between declining political trust and declining turnout, but they have paid less attention to the effect of trust on vote choice. In an era characterized by declining trust, the incumbent party has lost, and third parties have strongly contested, four of the last eight presidential elections. Such outcomes are historically anomalous. This study demonstrates that declining political trust affects vote choice, but the electoral beneficiary differs according to electoral context. In two-candidate races, politically distrustful voters support candidates from the nonincumbent major party. In races with three viable candidates, third-party alternatives benefit from declining political trust at the expense of both major parties.