Dynamical Seasonal Predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon

Abstract

Ensembles of hindcasts from seven models are analyzed to evaluate dynamical seasonal predictability of 850-hPa wind and rainfall for the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) during 1987, 1988, and 1993. These integrations were performed using observed sea surface temperatures and from observed initial conditions. The experiments were designed by the Climate Variability and Predictability, Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction as part of the Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project. Integrations from the European Union Prediction of Climate Variations on Seasonal to Interannual Timescales experiment are also evaluated.