Development of health risk-based metrics for defining a heatwave: a time series study in Brisbane, Australia

Abstract

BACKGROUND: This study attempted to develop health risk-based metrics for defining a heatwave in Brisbane, Australia. METHODS: Poisson generalised additive model was performed to assess the impact of heatwaves on mortality and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) in Brisbane. RESULTS: In general, the higher the intensity and the longer the duration of a heatwave, the greater the health impacts. There was no apparent difference in EHAs risk during different periods of a warm season. However, there was a greater risk for mortality in the 2nd half of a warm season than that in the 1st half. While elderly (≥75 years) were particularly vulnerable to both the EHA and mortality effects of a heatwave, the risk for EHAs also significantly increased for two other age groups (0-64 years and 65-74 years) during severe heatwaves. Different patterns between cardiorespiratory mortality and EHAs were observed. Based on these findings, we propose the use of a tiered heat warning system based on the health risk of heatwave. CONCLUSIONS: Health risk-based metrics are a useful tool for the development of local heatwave definitions. This tool may have significant implications for the assessment of heatwave-related health consequences and development of heatwave response plans and implementation strategies.