Temperature and Mortality in 11 Cities of the Eastern United States

TLDR

Episodes of extremely hot or cold temperatures are associated with increased mortality. The study aims to describe the temperature‑mortality association for 11 large eastern US cities (1973‑1994) by estimating relative risks and exploring city characteristics linked to variations. The authors used log‑linear regression on time‑series data to estimate relative risks of mortality and examined city characteristics that influence the temperature‑mortality relationship. The analysis found that mortality risk decreases with rising temperature up to a latitude‑dependent threshold, after which it increases, with stronger cold effects in southern cities and warm effects in northern ones, and that household AC/heater prevalence—reflecting socioeconomic status—also predicts weather‑related mortality; the model can project climate‑change impacts.

Abstract

Episodes of extremely hot or cold temperatures are associated with increased mortality. Time-series analyses show an association between temperature and mortality across a range of less extreme temperatures. In this paper, the authors describe the temperature-mortality association for 11 large eastern US cities in 1973-1994 by estimating the relative risks of mortality using log-linear regression analysis for time-series data and by exploring city characteristics associated with variations in this temperature-mortality relation. Current and recent days' temperatures were the weather components most strongly predictive of mortality, and mortality risk generally decreased as temperature increased from the coldest days to a certain threshold temperature, which varied by latitude, above which mortality risk increased as temperature increased. The authors also found a strong association of the temperature-mortality relation with latitude, with a greater effect of colder temperatures on mortality risk in more-southern cities and of warmer temperatures in more-northern cities. The percentage of households with air conditioners in the south and heaters in the north, which serve as indicators of socioeconomic status of the city population, also predicted weather-related mortality. The model developed in this analysis is potentially useful for projecting the consequences of climate-change scenarios and offering insights into susceptibility to the adverse effects of weather.