Concepedia

How the West “Invented” Fertility Restriction

American Economic Review · 2013 · 243 citations · 92 references

TL;DR

The European Marriage Pattern emerged as the first socioeconomic institution limiting fertility, reducing childbirths by about one‑third between the fourteenth and eighteenth centuries through women’s comparative advantage in animal husbandry, a post‑Black Death shift toward pastoralism, and improved female employment prospects that delayed marriage. The study aims to explain the rise of the European Marriage Pattern by modeling agricultural production. The authors construct a two‑sector model of grain and livestock production to capture the shift toward pastoralism. Using detailed data from England, the model is validated, providing strong evidence for the proposed mechanism. JEL classification codes: J12, J13, J16, N33, N53, Q11.

Abstract

We analyze the emergence of the first socioeconomic institution in history limiting fertility: west of a line from St. Petersburg to Trieste, the European Marriage Pattern (EMP) reduced childbirths by approximately one-third between the fourteenth and eighteenth century. To explain the rise of EMP we build a two-sector model of agricultural production—grain and livestock. Women have a comparative advantage in animal husbandry. After the Black Death in 1348–1350, land abundance triggered a shift toward the pastoral sector. This improved female employment prospects, leading to later marriages. Using detailed data from England, we provide strong evidence for our mechanism. (JEL J12, J13, J16, N33, N53, Q11)