Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond

TLDR

The economy moves from a Malthusian regime with slow technological progress and population growth limiting income, through a Post‑Malthusian phase where technology rises and population growth partially absorbs output, to a Modern Growth regime after a demographic transition that decouples income and population growth. The paper develops a unified growth model that captures the historical evolution of population, technology, and output. The model endogenously transitions between three regimes—Malthusian, Post‑Malthusian, and Modern Growth—that have characterized economic development. JEL codes: J13, O11, O33, O40.

Abstract

This paper develops a unified growth model that captures the historical evolution of population, technology, and output. It encompasses the endogenous transition between three regimes that have characterized economic development. The economy evolves from a Malthusian regime, where technological progress is slow and population growth prevents any sustained rise in income per capita, into a Post-Malthusian regime, where technological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth. Ultimately, a demographic transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth, and the economy enters a Modern Growth regime with reduced population growth and sustained income growth. (JEL J13, O11, O33, O40)