Predictive Validity of the Structured Assessment for Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) With Juvenile Offenders

Abstract

Violence is a serious social problem that is often encountered in the youth justice system. Identifying those adolescents who are at the highest risk for future violence is an important step toward effective rehabilitation. The current study examined the predictive validity of the Structured Assessment for Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), a structured professional judgment risk tool, in a sample of 121 juvenile offenders. The SAVRY was found to have strong predictive validity, a finding that was robust across gender and ethnicity. The SAVRY obtained ROC values of .75 and .66 for general and violent recidivism, respectively, for 1 year, and values of .76 and .77 for general and violent recidivism, respectively, for 3-year follow-up. For nonviolent recidivism, the ROC values were .80 for 1-year and .68 during 3 years. Use of the SAVRY in the youth justice system, and limitations of the study, are discussed.