Predicting relapse: A meta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies.

TLDR

Assessing chronicity of sexual offending is essential because policies such as post‑sentence detention, lifetime supervision, and community notification target those likely to reoffend, and clinicians must determine whether behaviors warrant a permanent offender label. The meta‑analysis found that sexual offenders who completed treatment reoffend less than those who did not, that predictors of nonsexual and general recidivism mirror those of nonsexual criminals, and that risk assessments should separately evaluate sexual and nonsexual recidivism.

Abstract

reoffending than those who completed treatment. The predictors of nonsexual violent recidivism and general (any) recidivism were similar to those predictors found among nonsexual criminals (e.g., prior violent offenses, age, juvenile deliquency). Our results suggest that applied risk assessments of sexual offenders should consider separately the offender's risk for sexual and nonsexual recidivism. Assessing chronicity is crucial for clients whose sexual behaviors have brought them into conflict with the law. Many exceptional criminal justice policies, such as postsentence detention (e.g., Anderson & Masters, 1992), lifetime community supervision, and community notification, target those sexual offenders likely to reoffend. Clinicians need to judge whether the client's behaviors are truly atypical of the individual (as the client would like us to believe) or whether the client merits a virtually permanent label as a sexual offender.