Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No‐Arbitrage and Macro‐Finance Models

Abstract

This paper examines a shift in the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates in the United States during the mid‐1980s. We document this shift using standard interest rate regressions and using dynamic, affine, no‐arbitrage models estimated for the pre‐ and post‐shift subsamples. The term structure shift largely appears to be the result of changes in the pricing of risk associated with a “level” factor. Using a macro‐finance model, we suggest a link between this shift in term structure behavior and changes in the dynamics and risk pricing of the Federal Reserve's inflation target as perceived by investors.