The Journal of Difference Equations and Applications · 2008 · 222 citations · 31 references
Veterinary MedicineInfectious DiseasesEmerging Infectious DiseasesInfectious Disease EpidemiologyPopulation EcologyDisease SpreadInfectious Disease DynamicsPopulation Dynamics ModelingTransmission DynamicsWildlife Disease EpidemiologyWildlife Infectious DiseasesBifurcationDiscrete-time Epidemic ModelsDiscrete-time ModelsEpidemic ModelsGlobal StabilityInfectious Disease ModelsMathematical Modeling Of EpidemicsTranscritical Bifurcation
The next‑generation matrix method for computing the basic reproduction number in discrete‑time epidemic models is summarized. The method is applied to six discrete‑time models of hantavirus in rodents and chytridiomycosis in amphibians, including two with discrete spatial patches, and R₀ is expressed analytically in terms of model parameters. The analysis shows that when R₀<1 the disease dies out and the disease‑free equilibrium is globally stable in a special SI hantavirus case, while a numerical example reveals a transcritical bifurcation at R₀=1, with endemic persistence for R₀>1.
The next generation matrix approach for calculating the basic reproduction number is summarized for discrete-time epidemic models. This approach is applied to six disease models developed for the study of two emerging wildlife diseases: hantavirus in rodents and chytridiomycosis in amphibians. Two of the models include discrete spatial patches. For each model, is calculated in terms of the model parameters. For , if a small number of infectives is introduced, then the wildlife disease dies out. Global stability of the disease-free equilibrium is verified for a special case of the SI hantavirus model when . In addition, a numerical example indicates that there is a transcritical bifurcation at , with the disease dying out if but tending to an endemic level if .
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The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases
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Status and Trends of Amphibian Declines and Extinctions Worldwide
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