Forward modeling of regional scale tree‐ring patterns in the southeastern United States and the recent influence of summer drought

Abstract

We use a mechanistic model of tree‐ring formation to simulate regional patterns of climate‐tree growth relationships in the southeastern United States. Modeled chronologies are consistent with actual tree‐ring data, demonstrating that our simulations have skill in reproducing broad‐scale patterns of the proxy's response to climate variability. The model predicts that a decrease in summer precipitation, associated with a weakening Bermuda High, has become an additional control on tree ring growth during recent decades. A nonlinear response of tree growth to climate variability has implications for the calibration of tree‐ring records for paleoclimate reconstructions and the prediction of ecosystem responses to climate change.