Probability model for worst case solar proton event fluences

Abstract

A predictive model of worst case solar proton event fluences is presented. It allows the expected worst case event fluence to be calculated for a given confidence level and for periods of time corresponding to space missions. The proton energy range is from >1 to >300 MeV, so that the model is useful for a variety of radiation effects applications. For each proton energy threshold, the maximum entropy principle is used to select the initial distribution of solar proton event fluences. This turns out to be a truncated power law, i.e., a power law for smaller event fluences that smoothly approaches zero at a maximum fluence. The strong agreement of the distribution with satellite data for the last three solar cycles indicates this description captures the essential features of a solar proton event fluence distribution. Extreme value theory is then applied to the initial distribution of events to obtain the model of worst case fluences.