Experimental ensemble forecasts of precipitation based on a convection‐resolving model

Abstract

Abstract We present the idea and the very first results of an “Experimental ensemble based on the COSMO‐DE (EELMK)”. The aim is to understand predictability limits of precipitation forecasts on the convective scale. Ensemble techniques with convection‐resolving models are a new field of research. We investigate forecast uncertainties due to imperfect model physics and lateral boundary conditions. The initial case studies demonstrate the potential of EELMK to generate variability between ensemble members in terms of spatial homogeneity and intensity of precipitation. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society