Knowledge-based Estimation of Manufacturing Lead Time for Complex Engineered-to-order Products

Abstract

Product complexity leads to increased unpredictability of indices related to manufacturing performance estimation. This phenomenon is intensified in companies that produce engineered-to-order products, such as the knowledge and labour intensive mould-making industry. During the initial capturing of product specifications formalisation difficulties arise. Moreover, the estimation of delivery times for new moulding project is solely based on the engineers’ experience. A methodology, which has been developed into a software tool is proposed that exposes graphical interfaces for customers to submit new orders and establish a formalised communication with the engineering team. The collected data are stored in a knowledge repository and are processed by a case-based reasoning mechanism for the lead time estimation. A real-life pilot installation has been initiated to a mould making SME. Preliminary results depict a significant reduction in the number of iterations between customers and engineering department compared to the traditional approach followed by the company, and improved accuracy of lead time estimation.