Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation
Water Resources Research · 1981 · 1.3K citations · 12 references
Markov Chain‐exponential ModelHydrological PredictionEngineeringWeather ForecastingClimate ModelingDaily Weather SamplesEarth ScienceStochastic SimulationNumerical Weather PredictionApplied MeteorologyMeteorological MeasurementHydroclimate ModelingAtmospheric ModelingClimate ForecastingHydrometeorologyMeteorologyClimate SciencesLong SamplesGeographyClimate DynamicsStochastic ModelingClimatologyDroughtClimate Modelling
Long weather data samples are required to assess long‑term hydrologic impacts, yet deterministic models rely on daily weather inputs, so stochastic generation provides an attractive alternative. This paper presents an approach that may be used to generate long samples of daily precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and solar radiation. Precipitation is generated independently via a Markov‑chain exponential model, while temperature and solar radiation are produced by a multivariate model conditioned on wet/dry status derived from the precipitation model. The generated daily weather samples preserve the seasonal and statistical characteristics of each variable and the interrelations among the four variables that exist in the observed data.
Long samples of weather data are frequently needed to evaluate the long‐term effects of proposed hydrologic changes. The evaluations are often undertaken using deterministic mathematical models that require daily weather data as input. Stochastic generation of the required weather data offers an attractive alternative to the use of observed weather records. This paper presents an approach that may be used to generate long samples of daily precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and solar radiation. Precipitation is generated independently of the other variables by using a Markov chain‐exponential model. The other three variables are generated by using a multivariate model with the means and standard deviations of the variables conditioned on the wet or dry status of the day as determined by the precipitation model. Daily weather samples that are generated with this approach preserve the seasonal and statistical characteristics of each variable and the interrelations among the four variables that exist in the observed data.
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A Markov chain model for daily rainfall occurrence at Tel Aviv
K. R. Gabriel, J. Neumann · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · 1962
545 citations
Mathematical assessment of synthetic hydrology
N. C. Matalas · Water Resources Research · 1967
511 citations
Some remarks on the use of daily rainfall models
T. A. Buishand · Journal of Hydrology · 1978
208 citations
Modeling daily precipitation occurrence process with Markov Chain
Edwin H. Chin · Water Resources Research · 1977
157 citations