A capacity related reliability for transportation networks

TLDR

Reliability is defined as the probability that a road network can accommodate a given traffic demand, based on the concept of network reserve capacity, which is the largest multiplier of an origin‑destination demand matrix that can be routed without exceeding link capacities. The study introduces a capacity‑related reliability metric for transportation networks with random link capacities. A probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo simulation models the variability in link capacities to estimate the reliability measure. Numerical experiments demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method.

Abstract

Abstract A capacity related reliability for transportation networks with random link capacity is introduced. It is defined as the probability that the road network can accommodate a certain level of traffic demand, and is built on the concept of network reserve capacity. Network reserve capacity is defined as the largest multiplier applied to an existing origin‐destination demand matrix that can be allocated to a transportation network in a user‐optimal way without violating the link capacities. Due to large variability associated with link capacities, a probabilistic approach is adopted to model the different physical and operational factors that often degrade the capacity of roadways. A Monte Carlo simulation procedure is developed to estimate the capacity related reliability measure. Numerical results are provided to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach.