Comparison of Model-simulated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide with GOSAT Retrievals

Abstract

Global atmospheric CO 2 distributions were simulated with a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and compared with space-borne observations of CO 2 column density by GOSAT from April 2009 to January 2010. The GEOS-Chem model simulated 3-D global atmospheric CO 2 at 2°×2.5° horizontal resolution using global CO 2 surface sources/sinks as well as 3-D emissions from aviation and the atmospheric oxidation of other carbon species. The seasonal cycle and spatial distribution of GEOS-Chem CO 2 columns were generally comparable with GOSAT columns over each continent with a systematic positive bias of ~1.0%. Data from the World Data Center for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) from twelve ground stations spanning 90°S-82°N were also compared with the modeled data for the period of 2004–2009 inclusive. The ground-based data show high correlations with the GEOS-Chem simulation (0.66≤R 2 ≤0.99) but the model data have a negative bias of ~1.0%, which is primarily due to the model initial conditions. Together these two comparisons can be used to infer that GOSAT CO 2 retrievals underestimate CO 2 column concentration by ~2.0%, as demonstrated in recent validation work using other methods. We further estimated individual source/sink contributions to the global atmospheric CO 2 budget and trends through 7 tagged CO 2 tracers (fossil fuels, ocean exchanges, biomass burning, biofuel burning, net terrestrial exchange, shipping, aviation, and CO oxidation) over 2004–2009. The global CO 2 trend over this period (2.1 ppmv/year) has been mainly driven by fossil fuel combustion and cement production (3.2 ppmv/year), reinforcing the fact that rigorous CO 2 reductions from human activities are necessary in order to stabilize atmospheric CO 2 levels.