Probabilistic Modelling and Simulation of Stochastic Load for Power System Studies

Abstract

The electric load forecasting results are essential for the simulation process of power system to predict the uncertainty of load fluctuation. At present, the load profile is affected by economic factors, weather conditions and customer's behaviours. The load data are required by power flow and risk assessment of the grid to accurately simulate the operation behaviour of electric distribution systems. This paper explores the probabilistic distribution of time-series load in the distribution network level of power systems and develops a probabilistic distribution model based on uniform and normal distribution with the historical load data observed from a distribution-level feeder from a residential community. A probabilistic load model is developed to expresses the random nature of electric load data. This paper describes the procedures for the probabilistic load model development and confirms its fitness for the real-time simulation and power flow computation in power system studies.