Two Modes of Democratic Breakdown: A Competing Risks Analysis of Democratic Durability

Abstract

There are two distinctive modes by which democracies become nondemocracies, which have not yet been differentiated in the literature. One is when a democratic government is toppled by a force outside of the government, such as a military coup, and the other is when a democratically elected leader suspends the democratic process. Employing a competing risks model, this article examines the effects of economic and institutional factors on a state's risk of experiencing either of these paths to democratic breakdown. An analysis of the duration of 135 democratic periods, between 1950 and 2004, provides evidence that lower levels of economic development and economic growth rates increase the risk of military coups and that incumbent democratic leaders are more likely to end the democratic process themselves in a presidential system than in a parliamentary system.