On systemic problem solving and the error of the third kind

Abstract

This paper attempts to formulate the error of the third kind, Em. Em. is defined as the probability of having solved the wrong problem when one should have solved the right problem. Em is basic to the notion of systemic problem conceptualization. This paper shows that Em can be given a precise treatment by considering how the value of a problem state changes as we vary its conceptualization across a set of basic systemic problem representations. It is shown that Em can itself be represented as a constrained maximization decision problem.