Deforestation and Reforestation of <scp>L</scp>atin <scp>A</scp>merica and the <scp>C</scp>aribbean (2001–2010)

TLDR

Forest cover change directly influences biodiversity, the global carbon budget, and ecosystem function, and in Latin America and the Caribbean it has been driven by contrasting deforestation and reforestation dynamics linked to demographic and socio‑economic shifts. This study aims to provide the first comprehensive, simultaneous assessment of deforestation and reforestation across all 16,050 municipalities in LAC from 2001 to 2010. We generated wall‑to‑wall annual land‑cover maps for each municipality and applied nonparametric Random Forest regression to identify environmental and population variables that best explain woody vegetation change. The analysis revealed that deforestation dominated (−541,835 km², mainly in moist forests, dry forests, and savannas), while recovery (+362,430 km²) occurred in drier or steeper regions, with moist‑forest loss occurring in low‑density, low‑land areas and no link to municipality‑scale population change, underscoring the need to quantify these processes at multiple scales and link them to global drivers such as food demand.

Abstract

Abstract Forest cover change directly affects biodiversity, the global carbon budget, and ecosystem function. Within Latin American and the Caribbean region ( LAC ), many studies have documented extensive deforestation, but there are also many local studies reporting forest recovery. These contrasting dynamics have been largely attributed to demographic and socio‐economic change. For example, local population change due to migration can stimulate forest recovery, while the increasing global demand for food can drive agriculture expansion. However, as no analysis has simultaneously evaluated deforestation and reforestation from the municipal to continental scale, we lack a comprehensive assessment of the spatial distribution of these processes. We overcame this limitation by producing wall‐to‐wall, annual maps of change in woody vegetation and other land‐cover classes between 2001 and 2010 for each of the 16,050 municipalities in LAC , and we used nonparametric Random Forest regression analyses to determine which environmental or population variables best explained the variation in woody vegetation change. Woody vegetation change was dominated by deforestation (−541,835 km 2 ), particularly in the moist forest, dry forest, and savannas/shrublands biomes in South America. Extensive areas also recovered woody vegetation (+362,430 km 2 ), particularly in regions too dry or too steep for modern agriculture. Deforestation in moist forests tended to occur in lowland areas with low population density, but woody cover change was not related to municipality‐scale population change. These results emphasize the importance of quantitating deforestation and reforestation at multiple spatial scales and linking these changes with global drivers such as the global demand for food.