Bias in the Brain: A Diffusion Model Analysis of Prior Probability and Potential Payoff

TLDR

Advance knowledge biases people toward choices that are more likely to be correct and more likely to be profitable, and accumulation‑to‑bound models explain this by shifts in starting point or evidence accumulation rate. The study aims to determine whether the biasing effects of prior probability and potential payoff are similar and whether a shared neural substrate underlies these biases in simple perceptual decisions. Using a random‑dot motion task with manipulations of prior probability and reward, subjects performed the task inside and outside a 3T MRI scanner, and drift‑diffusion modeling of behavioral data provided bias estimates that were used in fMRI analyses to locate bias‑related brain regions. Behaviorally, participants made faster, more frequent choices toward the more probable or higher‑payoff alternative due to a shift in starting point, and fMRI revealed that frontoparietal regions modulated starting points for both manipulations, indicating a common neural mechanism.

Abstract

In perceptual decision-making, advance knowledge biases people toward choice alternatives that are more likely to be correct and more likely to be profitable. Accumulation-to-bound models provide two possible explanations for these effects: prior knowledge about the relative attractiveness of the alternatives at hand changes either the starting point of the decision process, or the rate of evidence accumulation. Here, we used model-based functional MRI to investigate whether these effects are similar for different types of prior knowledge, and whether there is a common neural substrate underlying bias in simple perceptual choices. We used two versions of the random-dot motion paradigm in which we manipulated bias by: (1) changing the prior likelihood of occurrence for two alternatives (“prior probability”) and (2) assigning a larger reward to one of two alternatives (“potential payoff”). Human subjects performed the task inside and outside a 3T MRI scanner. For each manipulation, bias was quantified by fitting the drift diffusion model to the behavioral data. Individual measurements of bias were then used in the imaging analyses to identify regions involved in biasing choice behavior. Behavioral results showed that subjects tended to make more and faster choices toward the alternative that was most probable or had the largest payoff. This effect was primarily due to a change in the starting point of the accumulation process. Imaging results showed that, at cue level, regions of the frontoparietal network are involved in changing the starting points in both manipulations, suggesting a common mechanism underlying the biasing effects of prior knowledge.