Determinants of International Return Migration Intentions*

Abstract

This paper analyzes the determinants of international return migration intentions using survey data on guestworkers in Germany, 1970–1989. It is hypothesized that return migration intentions are influenced by personal attributes, residential and job satisfaction, and three time-dependent variables: a temporal trend, a duration effect, and years prior to retirement. The hypotheses are tested using logit models of the intention to return. The results indicate that return intention probabilities are strongly affected by satisfaction and time-dependent variables while the influence of personal attributes is of little importance.