Monte Carlo Simulation of Power System Stability

Abstract

This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation of the transient stability of a power system. The simulation time is in the order of years in which the occurrence of disturbances and the subsequent protective action are considered to be stochastic processes. The objective is to obtain a probabilistic measure of transient stability for a power system instead of just its particular response to an individual disturbance. The latter is the usual output of deterministic transient stability programs that are used for present day worst case analysis. A probabilistic analysis is needed if such worst case design criteria is to be replaced by (probabilistic) reliability criteria. This paper describes a computer program that has been developed for such a Monte Carlo simulation and presents some results of its application to representative systems.