The Impact of Imports of Manufactured Milk Products on the U.S. Dairy Industry

Abstract

Abstract Recent events have sparked a debate over the effects of increased dairy imports on the U.S. dairy industry. This study attempts to estimate these impacts via an econometric model of the U.S. dairy sector. The time paths of adjustment of consumption, production, and price of specific dairy products and raw milk are estimated under three alternative levels of manufactured milk product imports. The analysis suggests that much larger than historically “normal” import levels are required to bring about a substantial impact upon the dairy industry in the longer run.