Numerical predictors of arithmetic success in grades 1–6

TLDR

Math relies on mastery and integration of a wide range of simpler numerical processes and concepts, and recent work has identified several numerical competencies that predict variation in math ability. We examined the unique relations between eight basic numerical skills and early arithmetic ability in a large sample (N = 1391) of children across grades 1–6. In grades 1–2, judging the relative magnitude of numerical symbols best predicted early arithmetic, while the predictive power of ordinal assessment steadily rose and surpassed other skills by grade 6, and no unique contribution was found for approximate nonsymbolic magnitude, and overall symbolic number processing outperformed nonsymbolic processing, with the importance shifting from cardinal to ordinal.

Abstract

Abstract Math relies on mastery and integration of a wide range of simpler numerical processes and concepts. Recent work has identified several numerical competencies that predict variation in math ability. We examined the unique relations between eight basic numerical skills and early arithmetic ability in a large sample ( N = 1391) of children across grades 1–6. In grades 1–2, children's ability to judge the relative magnitude of numerical symbols was most predictive of early arithmetic skills. The unique contribution of children's ability to assess ordinality in numerical symbols steadily increased across grades, overtaking all other predictors by grade 6. We found no evidence that children's ability to judge the relative magnitude of approximate, nonsymbolic numbers was uniquely predictive of arithmetic ability at any grade. Overall, symbolic number processing was more predictive of arithmetic ability than nonsymbolic number processing, though the relative importance of symbolic number ability appears to shift from cardinal to ordinal processing.