Epidemiology and Infection · 2007 · 41 citations · 31 references
Veterinary MedicineDairy ScienceInfectious DiseasesDairy MicrobiologyHost-pathogen InteractionsInfectious Disease EpidemiologyDisease SpreadInfectious Disease DynamicsLivestock Infectious DiseasesMicrobial Transmission DynamicsPathogen TransmissionTransmission DynamicsBasic Reproduction Number EstimationDisease Outbreak ModelingHost-pathogen Dynamics ModelsInfection Prevalence DynamicsInfectious Disease ModelsInfectious Period AnalysisIntensive SamplingTransmission Dynamics Modeling
We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for 1 year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.
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