A mechanistic, stochastic, population model of egg production

Abstract

1. A mechanistic, stochastic egg production model is presented. Mean age at first egg may be predicted from the lighting programme applied during rearing, using the Bristol-Reading model (Lewis et al., 2002). 2. Rate of ovulation is determined by an amended version of the mathematical model of the ovulatory cycle, originally proposed by Etches and Schoch (1984). 3. Oviposition times are estimated from ovulation times. 4. Yolk, albumen and shell weights are calculated using allometric functions. 5. The model predicts egg production of a theoretical flock of laying hens for a full laying year, including random occurrences of double-yolked and soft-shelled eggs and internal ovulations.