EOR Screening Criteria Revisited—Part 2: Applications and Impact of Oil Prices

TLDR

Screening criteria enable rapid assessment of many reservoirs before costly descriptions, yet EOR decisions hinge on economics, making future oil prices a key factor. The authors evaluated oil‑price effects on EOR by comparing actual production to earlier NPC predictions. Using CO₂ screening, the authors estimate that ~80 % of world reservoirs qualify for injection, and despite lower prices reducing project counts, incremental production has stayed near the 1984 NPC $20/bbl forecast and now exceeds it for CO₂ flooding, underscoring continued benefits.

Abstract

Summary Screening criteria are useful for cursory examination of many candidate reservoirs before expensive reservoir descriptions and economic evaluations are done. We have used our CO2 screening criteria to estimate the total quantity of CO2 that might be needed for the oil reservoirs of the world. If only depth and oil gravity are considered, it appears that about 80% of the world's reservoirs could qualify for some type of CO2 injection. Because the decisions on future EOR projects are based more on economics than on screening criteria, future oil prices are important. Therefore, we examined the impact of oil prices on EOR activities by comparing the actual EOR oil production to that predicted by earlier Natl. Petroleum Council (NPC) reports. Although the lower prices since 1986 have reduced the number of EOR projects, the actual incremental production has been very close to that predicted for U.S. $20/bbl in the 1984 NPC report. Incremental oil production from CO2 flooding continues to increase, and now actually exceeds the predictions made for U.S. $20 oil in the NPC report, even though oil prices have been at approximately that level for some time.