New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases

TLDR

The study updates the simple forcing‑concentration relationships used by the IPCC for well‑mixed greenhouse gases. The authors performed new radiative‑forcing calculations for well‑mixed greenhouse gases using three radiative‑transfer models and revised the simple forcing‑concentration relationships. They found that CO₂ forcing, including shortwave absorption, is 15 % lower than the IPCC estimate, the total WMGG forcing is 2.25 W m⁻² with ~5 % uncertainty, and the relative importance of CFCs has risen by ~20 %.

Abstract

We have performed new calculations of the radiative forcing due to changes in the concentrations of the most important well mixed greenhouse gases (WMGG) since pre‐industrial time. Three radiative transfer models are used. The radiative forcing due to CO 2 , including shortwave absorption, is 15% lower than the previous IPCC estimate. The radiative forcing due to all the WMGG is calculated to 2.25 Wm −2 , which we estimate to be accurate to within about 5%. The importance of the CFCs is increased by about 20% relative to the total effect of all WMGG compared to previous estimates. We present updates to simple forcing‐concentration relationships previously used by IPCC.